In a major development aimed at reinforcing deterrence against North Korean threats, the United States and South Korea convened their third Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) meeting on June 10, 2024. The high-level talks resulted in enhanced coordination and planning for an integrated nuclear response capability on the Korean Peninsula.
“Across the board, we’re making progress in the Nuclear Consultative Group,”
remarked Richard C. Johnson, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Nuclear and Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Policy.
Key Points:
- Signed shared guidelines establishing principles for U.S.-South Korea nuclear deterrence policy
- Discussed integrating South Korea’s conventional forces with U.S. nuclear operations
- Agreed to conduct tabletop exercises simulating joint responses to nuclear attacks
- U.S. reaffirmed commitment by visible presence of strategic nuclear assets
South Korea’s Offensive Military Strategy
South Korea has adopted an increasingly offensive defense posture aimed at enhancing deterrence against North Korea. This “three-axis system” includes preemptive strike capabilities, missile defenses, and plans for “massive retaliation” targeting the North Korean leadership if attacked.
Notably, the Korean Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR) strategy involves precision strikes to potentially eliminate Kim Jong-un and the regime’s top brass. While intended to signal resolve, experts warn such threats to regime survival could desperately provoke North Korea to use nuclear weapons preemptively.
U.S. Extended Deterrence and Support
To bolster this approach, the U.S. has reaffirmed its “unwavering commitment” to provide extended nuclear deterrence for South Korea. The newly established NCG framework allows closer coordination on nuclear policy, planning, and operations.
“These guidelines really serve as the principles and procedures upon which the alliance will approach nuclear deterrence issues,”
Johnson explained regarding the NCG’s new shared principles signed at this meeting.
A key focus is the integration of South Korea’s rapidly improving conventional capabilities with U.S. nuclear forces and operations.
“Integration of South Korea’s conventional capabilities with U.S. nuclear operations substantively strengthens allied deterrence and response capabilities against the North Korea threat,”
the NCG statement said.
Furthermore, the U.S. has bolstered visible commitments like last July’s historic port visit to Busan by the nuclear ballistic missile submarine USS Kentucky – the first in over 40 years.
“I don’t think we’ve ever had this high of collaboration and trust on extended deterrence with the U.S. and South Korea,” Johnson remarked.
Preparing for Contingencies
However, effective nuclear deterrence requires continual planning, exercises and streamlined decision-making. To that end, the NCG agreed to a series of tabletop exercises (TTXs) over the next year to simulate joint operations.
These will include an inter-agency policy simulation, an NCG-led command exercise, and significantly, a dedicated military TTX between U.S. and South Korean forces. “The best way to understand how to operate in this complex world is to practice,” Johnson stated.
Risks and Challenges
While the U.S.-South Korea nuclear deterrence cooperation has reached new heights, it is not without risks. Some nonproliferation experts question the legality and proportionality of South Korea’s “massive retaliation” strategy under the nuclear prohibitions.
There are also concerns about the potential for uncontrolled escalation on the peninsula from overt efforts to threaten the Kim regime’s survival. China remains opposed to the potential deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons in South Korea, citing impacts to regional stability.
Final Thoughts
As the peninsula remains locked in a tense standoff, the U.S. and South Korea are intensifying nuclear planning and deterrence measures through the NCG framework. While enhancing preparation for worst-case scenarios, both allies must carefully manage escalation risks.
Continuing diplomacy to provide North Korea an offramp from its nuclear pursuits, backed by credible deterrence capabilities, remains crucial.
Sources: THX News, CSIS, US Embassy ROK, VOA News & US Department of Defense.
